Faultlines of Conflict in Central Asia and the South Caucasus

The authors identify and evaluate key faultlines in Central Asia and the South Caucasus and how they affect the likelihood and possible evolution of armed conflict in these regions. These faultlines include the role of state political and economic weakness; the impact of crime and the drug trade; the effects of ethnic tensions, foreign interests, and influence; and the impact of competition over natural resources. The analysis then examines the ways in which the emergence of conflict could draw the United States into the strife and examines the operational challenges the region poses for possible Army deployments in the 2010-2015 time frame.